Along with the recovery of the global market, in Q1 2024, export orders increased, leading to strong growth in import and export activities. According to Report 55/BC - TCTK dated March 29, 2024, from the General Statistics Office, Ministry of Planning and Investment on the socio-economic situation in Q1 2024, the total import and export turnover of goods in March reached 65.09 billion USD, an increase of 35.6% compared to the previous month and an increase of 12% compared to the same period last year.
In Q1 2024, the total import and export turnover reached 178.04 billion USD, an increase of 15.5% compared to the same period last year. Of which, the export turnover reached 93.06 billion USD and the import turnover reached 84.98 billion USD, increasing by 17% and 13.9% respectively compared to the same period last year. The trade balance of goods achieved a surplus of 8.08 billion USD.
Regarding exports
It can be seen that in Q1 2024, the export turnover of goods experienced significant growth with a figure of 93.06 billion USD, of which the domestic economic area reached 25.21 billion USD (an increase of 26.2%) and the area with foreign investment (including crude oil) reached 67.85 billion USD (an increase of 13.9%). Of which, the domestic economic area accounted for 27.1% of the export turnover and the area with foreign investment accounted for 72.9%. The export turnover growth rate of domestic enterprises is nearly double that of foreign-invested enterprises (including crude oil).
There are a total of 16 items with export turnover exceeding 1 billion USD, accounting for 82.1% of the total export turnover in Q1 2024. This number is higher than the same period last year by 2 items. In particular, there are 4 items with export turnover exceeding 5 billion USD, accounting for 52.7%.
Export growth is strong and consistent in all commodity groups. The agricultural, forestry, and aquatic product group has an export turnover increase of 26.1%, reaching 9.9 billion USD, accounting for 10.6% of the country's total import and export turnover. Products such as coffee, rice, tea, fruits and vegetables, cassava and cassava products, cashew nuts, wood and wood products are the ones with high export turnover growth compared to the same period last year.
The processing and manufacturing industry group increased by 16.1% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 82.02 billion USD, accounting for 88.1% of the total export turnover. Many groups of processed industrial products have achieved high export growth rates, such as plastic increasing by 131.9%; iron and steel increasing by 32.7%; electronics, computers, and components increasing by 30.3%; chemicals increasing by 41.9%; plastic raw materials increasing by 38.9%; chemicals increasing by 25.2%; crude oil increasing by 24.5%.
The first quarter of 2024 also witnessed the export growth of the mineral fuel group with an increase of 10.8%, reaching 1.18 billion USD compared to the same period in 2023.
Export turnover in the first months of the year to major markets and trading partners has shown good recovery and high growth. The largest export market of Vietnam in the first quarter is the United States with a turnover of 26.2 billion USD (accounting for 28.2% of total export turnover), an increase of 26% compared to the same period last year. China ranks second with a growth rate of 5.2%, estimated at 12.7 billion USD. The EU market ranks third with a growth rate of 16.4%, reaching 12.1 billion USD. ASEAN reached 8.9 billion USD, an increase of 9.5%. Exports to South Korea reached 6.6 billion USD, an increase of 12.9%, and Japan is estimated to reach 5.7%, an increase of 6.4%.
Regarding imports
In the first quarter of 2024, the total value of goods imports increased by 13.9% compared to the same period last year, reaching 84.98 billion USD. The domestic economic area increased by 14.4%, reaching 29.7 billion USD, and the area with foreign investment increased by 13.6%, reaching 55.28 billion USD.
There were 17 imported goods with a value of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 76.1% of the total import value. Among them, there were 2 imported goods with a value of over 10 billion USD, including electronics, computers, and components reaching 23.9 billion USD, an increase of 23.6%, accounting for 28.2% of the total import value; machinery, equipment, and other spare parts reaching 10.3 billion USD, an increase of 12.1%, accounting for 12.1%.
Regarding the structure of import goods categories in Q1 2024, it is noteworthy that the group of production materials has increased significantly compared to the group of consumer goods. This indicates that companies are focusing more on production recovery rather than consumption. The export turnover of the group of production materials reached 79.9 billion USD, accounting for 94%, of which machinery and spare parts accounted for 46.3%.
The export turnover of the group of raw materials, fuels, and materials accounted for 47.7% of the total. Many imported items have seen significant increases, such as tobacco raw materials up 211.8%; fertilizers up 54.4%; coal up 36.9%; iron and steel up 31.9%; cotton up 27.4%; electrical wires and cables up 26%; electronics, computers, and components up 23.6%; phones and components up 23.3%; household appliances and components up 22.7%; crude oil up 21.3%.
The consumer goods category reached an estimated total value of 5.08 billion USD, an increase of 4.6% compared to the same period last year, accounting for 6% of the total import turnover. Among these, one of the largest imported items is completely built-up cars, reaching 632 million USD, a decrease of 31.7% compared to the same period last year (equivalent to 31.5 thousand units, a decrease of 25.1% in quantity).
In Q1 2024, the main import markets of Vietnam all experienced growth. China continues to be the largest import market of Vietnam with an estimated value of 29.4 billion USD, accounting for 34.6% of the country's total export turnover and increasing by 24.4% compared to the same period last year. Next is South Korea with an estimated value of 12.8 billion USD, an increase of 4.3%; ASEAN market with an estimated value of 11.1 billion USD, an increase of 9.8%; Japan with an estimated value of 5.6 billion USD, an increase of 6.8%; European Union (EU) with an estimated value of 3.9 billion USD, an increase of 17.3%; and finally the United States with an estimated value of 3.5 billion USD, an increase of 14.8%.
Evaluation
However, Vietnam's import and export activities in 2024, especially exports to major markets such as Europe and America, will face both opportunities and challenges.
The advantages come from the continued positive impact of free trade agreements (FTAs), maintaining Vietnam's position in trade and investment. At the same time, the demand of the global market in general and major market regions such as Europe and America has started to recover from the end of 2023 due to gradually decreasing inflation and may achieve the target set by central banks for 2024 (ECB and FED - 2%). Furthermore, the continued promotion of diversifying supply sources, supply chains, and investments by developed industrial countries will help Vietnam become an important production and export center in the global value chain...
However, there are challenges, especially when the global economy is transitioning to a new phase with unpredictable risks and difficulties. The forecast for global economic growth and the European-American regional countries in 2024 is lower than in 2023. Political conflicts continue to persist and instability may spread to other regions. Global opposition is becoming stronger. Protectionist policies of countries are also increasing. In addition, developed countries are concerned about sustainable development, climate change, and product safety for consumers, which has prompted the establishment of new standards and regulations related to supply chains, raw materials, labor, and the environment, all of which have strict implications for imported products. Diversifying sources of supply outside of China and focusing on close partners in the market as well as equivalent partners to Vietnam such as Turkey, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh... will create increasingly fierce competition in Vietnam's export markets...
Although there are positive results in the first quarter of 2024, it is necessary to continue to closely monitor the situation to take timely response measures, because there are still potential difficulties and challenges. This includes interest rates remaining high, lending interest rates have not decreased commensurate with deposit interest rates; Export markets are recovering but not yet stable. In particular, it is necessary to carefully monitor market fluctuations and partners' policies to propose appropriate solutions, developing both traditional export markets and new markets. At the same time, it is necessary to continue to provide timely information to industry associations about developments in export markets, helping businesses flexibly adjust production plans and seek orders from other markets together.
The Vietnam Trade Office system in market areas is directed to continuously update information on international market situations, including regulations, standards, and conditions that may affect import and export activities. Vietnam's exports, and propose appropriate measures for localities, associations and import-export businesses.
Currently, in addition to the 16 existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), there are also 3 FTAs with Vietnam under negotiation. That is the FTA between Vietnam and the EFTA bloc (including 4 countries: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein); Participate in the FTA negotiation process between ASEAN and Canada; The FTA between Vietnam and the UAE is in the process of trying to complete negotiations soon. Therefore, it is necessary to effectively take advantage of signed Free Trade Agreements, speed up the process of negotiating and signing new FTAs, and create new economic links to diversify markets, supply chains and promote exports.
